New Zealand Q3 inflation may ease modestly but the pause is expected to be short-lived. NZD weakness and a spike in oil prices should re-accelerate inflation in Q4; economists now see Q4 CPI as high as 4.7% vs the RBNZ's prior 3.9% projection. Markets say this strengthens the case for further tightening and price a 25bp RBNZ hike at the Oct policy meeting to lift the official cash rate to 3%. BNZ Wellington head of research Stephen Topliss said: "When the world changes you must change with it. T

New Zealand Q3 inflation may ease modestly but the pause is expected to be short-lived. NZD weakness and a spike in oil prices should re-accelerate inflation in Q4; economists now see Q4 CPI as high as 4.7% vs the RBNZ's prior 3.9% projection. Markets say this strengthens the case for further tightening and price a 25bp RBNZ hike at the Oct policy meeting to lift the official cash rate to 3%. BNZ Wellington head of research Stephen Topliss said: "When the world changes you must change with it. The world now is markedly different from what the RBNZ previously expected, so the central bank should adjust policy accordingly."