A Reuters survey found 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% at the October meeting, and all 100 respondents expect a rate increase in December, versus fewer than half who expected a December hike in last month’s poll. Economists noted persistent inflation but said policymakers have signalled patience. Mizuho senior US economist Alex Pelle said the economy is strong and inflation is rising, called skipping October a policy mistake, and forecast the Fed

2026-10-20

A Reuters survey found 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% at the October meeting, and all 100 respondents expect a rate increase in December, versus fewer than half who expected a December hike in last month’s poll. Economists noted persistent inflation but said policymakers have signalled patience. Mizuho senior US economist Alex Pelle said the economy is strong and inflation is rising, called skipping October a policy mistake, and forecast the Fed will lift rates in December—likely 25bps but potentially 50bps rather than no hike.