Morgan Stanley says even if current war-related supply disruptions ease, global refined-product markets could remain tight through mid-2027 as unusually large refinery maintenance is constraining supply. Analysts led by Martin Latz expect planned refinery outages through Q2 next year to remove about 3.4 mln b/d of capacity — roughly 2.5 times normal and larger than current reductions from Middle East and Russian refiners. Eight months of Middle East conflict and recent reciprocal attacks on ener

Morgan Stanley says even if current war-related supply disruptions ease, global refined-product markets could remain tight through mid-2027 as unusually large refinery maintenance is constraining supply. Analysts led by Martin Latz expect planned refinery outages through Q2 next year to remove about 3.4 mln b/d of capacity — roughly 2.5 times normal and larger than current reductions from Middle East and Russian refiners. Eight months of Middle East conflict and recent reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure between Russia and Ukraine have exacerbated the shortfall. Diesel exports have dropped sharply, pushing diesel prices above crude; diesel is critical for transport, heating and industry. Morgan Stanley says many refineries delayed maintenance to chase margins but cannot defer it indefinitely, and run rates are unlikely to rebound materially by Q2 next year.