Precious metals fell broadly. Short-term moves in the USD index and U.S.
Treasury yields will dominate price direction; the October Fed meeting and
international oil will be the main upstream drivers. Huishang Futures says the
pullback is driven by rising Fed rate-hike expectations and concentrated long
liquidations: stronger U.S. jobs and inflation data have repriced a
higher-for-longer policy path, lifting real yields and the dollar and raising
the carrying cost of non-yielding metals. Fading geopolitical risk premia and
weaker industrial demand have amplified silver’s decline. Jinrui Futures
attributes the rout to a reversal in the macro rate backdrop and trade-driven
deleveraging: deteriorating financial conditions set the common downwards
direction, while differences in market liquidity, investor structure and
industrial demand explain cross-commodity dispersion. After the prior sharp
correction, a technical rebound is possible, but any sustained recovery depends
on the subsequent paths of U.S. yields and the USD.
