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A draft joint statement from France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK (E5) says Russia is the most urgent and long-term threat to European security and pledges steadfast support for Ukraine. The draft accuses Russia of continuing the war in Ukraine, repeatedly violating allied airspace, carrying out sabotage and mounting increasingly frequent multi‑domain hybrid attacks. Ministers plan to say Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own security; the statement is expected after a Paris meeting on Monday. It adds the US remains an indispensable ally and that greater European responsibility should begin by strengthening European allies’ capabilities and status within NATO. The draft says EU regulatory and financial tools can help member states build defence capacity but EU efforts should reinforce, not duplicate, NATO and remain open to non‑NATO members.

Reuters survey: 22 of 27 economists expect the RBNZ to hike 25bp on Oct 28, lifting the official cash rate to 3.00%.