Gavekal Research analyst Rohan Daswani said Lula’s unexpected victory over
Bolsonaro could trigger heavy selling when Brazil’s market opens, but investors
should treat any dip as a buying opportunity. Markets had earlier priced in a
Bolsonaro win and expectations of stronger fiscal discipline; as those trades
unwind, Daswani said Brazil’s structural case remains intact: nominal and real
rates are unusually high, the economy has large commodity exposure, and Brazil’s
role in key mineral supply chains is rising. He noted Brazil’s Congress is
markedly more conservative than the president, limiting scope for a sharp
leftward policy shift. (Brazilian equities open 21:00 Beijing time.)