Polish Prime Minister Tusk said the Finnish president told him after a call with Russian President Putin that Europe is "cautiously optimistic" about the Abu Dhabi talks.

Capital Economics says global inflation YoY rose from 2.6% in January to 3.6% in August and is likely to worsen, driven mainly by elevated energy prices. It forecasts Brent crude at about US$100/bbl through early 2027, which will lift fuel inflation, while higher gas prices will push household energy inflation across most advanced economies. Together these pressures could push global inflation above 4% by early 2027.

Russian seaborne crude exports averaged 3.55 mln bpd over the four weeks to Oct 25, down 30,000 bpd from the four-week period to Oct 18 and the lowest level in five weeks. Weekly flows showed a rebound: 12 tankers departed Primorsk last week versus four the prior week; the port had earlier recorded three consecutive days with no arrivals or departures, interruptions typically linked to equipment maintenance. Reduced Kyiv attacks on Russian refineries have allowed Moscow to raise refinery runs, potentially diverting barrels from export to domestic processing; no refinery strikes were reported in the seven days to Oct 25. Russia, Ukraine and the US are pushing to open tripartite talks.