A TOP EXECUTIVE at Spark Capital Advisors said India’s benchmark equity index has fallen 13% year-to-date, but slowing economic growth, elevated oil prices and stretched valuations may limit upside, so the rout may not yet be deep enough to lure investors back. The Nifty 50 is set for its weakest annual showing in over a decade after nearly doubling across the prior ten years.

Major global banks overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to pause at the October FOMC and leave a 25bp hike penciled in for December. Goldman Sachs, CITIGROUP, Crédit Agricole, Nomura, TD Securities, Huatai Securities, Morgan Stanley and BNY MELLON forecast an October pause and a December +25bp, with several groups keeping a further 25bp move in March conditional on inflation. TD and Morgan Stanley explicitly expect two more 25bp hikes (Dec and Mar). BNY MELLON sees the peak rate a little above 4.5%, implying roughly three additional hikes into next year. CITIGROUP warns that sustained equity weakness that sharply tightens financial conditions would materially raise the odds of the Fed pivoting toward cuts. MOODY'S says the Fed should not hike this week, citing rising economic risks and bond-market signals that reduce the need to tighten. Bank of America remains a notable outlier, arguing an October hike would preserve optionality for December and better address inflation risk.

Israel's Channel 12 reports that with 100% of votes counted excluding double-envelope ballots, Prime Minister NETANYAHU's bloc holds 53 Knesset seats, the opposition 48 and Arab parties 19; NETANYAHU's bloc leads by five seats.