WBG said on Wednesday it expects global commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026,
driven by higher energy from the Middle East war, shipping bottlenecks including
blocked Black Sea grain flows, and safe‑haven demand for gold. The Commodity
Markets Outlook noted large price gains this year across oil, gas, food and
metals. It warned that further escalation of the Middle East conflict or
continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could worsen the outlook. The
report forecasts a 7% pullback in commodity prices next year but cautions that a
prolonged shock — including a potentially severe El Nifio — could keep food
prices elevated, raising inflation and the risk of monetary tightening. WBG also
said global oil inventories have been drawn down during the Middle East war and
expects global oil supply to fall 5.2% in 2026, the largest decline in roughly
40 years outside the 2020 downturn.
