Oil futures rose as market concern about a Middle East escalation after the US
midterm elections outweighed intensive regional diplomacy. CITIGROUP analyst
Francesco Martoccia said the post-election Israeli political deadlock 'heightens
uncertainty at a sensitive moment for US‑Israel‑Iran ties and raises the risk of
renewed military escalation.' He warned escalation would likely push the
geopolitical risk premium higher, while credible progress on negotiations could
partially unwind it, and said the election outcome does not alter CITIGROUP’s
baseline of a negotiated deal by year‑end but raises the probability of a more
volatile, potentially destructive path.
