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TD Securities rate strategists Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks say the US Treasury is expected to leave coupon Treasury auction sizes unchanged in next week’s quarterly refunding announcement but may drop prior guidance that sizes will remain steady. They warn removing the guidance would not mean an immediate change in auctions but would alert markets that adjustments are imminent. TD Securities expects the Treasury to cut 20‑ and 30‑year auction sizes in the Feb 2027 quarterly refunding and to expand 2‑ to 10‑year auction sizes in the May 2027 refunding to gradually reduce long-term issuance as the term premium rises.

Alessia Berardi, global head of macroeconomics and emerging markets strategy at Credit Agricole CIB Investment Research, said the Fed’s patience should not be read as complacency. In line with market pricing, Credit Agricole CIB expects the Fed to keep policy rates unchanged. Berardi noted the labour market has softened and market rates remain elevated, but the inf outlook is unchanged, so the Fed still needs to continue withdrawing accommodation.