CITIC Securities says the Fed held in October as expected; the statement was more upbeat on growth while policy guidance was more circumspect. Post-meeting remarks from Fed officials were milder than in September, noting tighter credit conditions, inflation expectations moving in the right direction, and flagging changes to the FOMC meeting schedule over the next two years. CITIC continues to expect a 25bp hike in December and judges the terminal rate in this tightening cycle is likely to remain

CITIC Securities says the Fed held in October as expected; the statement was more upbeat on growth while policy guidance was more circumspect. Post-meeting remarks from Fed officials were milder than in September, noting tighter credit conditions, inflation expectations moving in the right direction, and flagging changes to the FOMC meeting schedule over the next two years. CITIC continues to expect a 25bp hike in December and judges the terminal rate in this tightening cycle is likely to remain close to current levels. New developments in the Middle East are not yet sufficient to create a clear, durable de-escalation path between the US and Iran; oil prices could stay elevated until the picture clarifies, and further improvement in USD liquidity will need a fresh catalyst.