Markets expect the ECB to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.50%. Whether the ECB signals further tightening at the December meeting will be a key driver for the euro and bond markets. Monitor pass-through of oil and gas costs into wages, services prices and core inflation. Movements in the French government bond market will inform whether the ECB judges prevailing financial conditions sufficiently tight to affect policy. Watch for any formal developments on Lagarde’s continuation or departure.

Analyst Mark Schroers says the ECB maintained its risk assessment—inflation faces upside risks while growth faces downside risks—and left language on future policy unchanged. The statement stressed two market-relevant points: underlying inflation has so far remained broadly stable and wages have not yet shown a clear response; and financing conditions have tightened since the last Governing Council meeting, which could curb inflation and weigh on growth. Moody's euro-area research head Camille Kovar said the statement’s tone is dovish and that such wording would not be used if the bank were preparing to embark on a broad tightening cycle.

Investor Peter Schiff said the federal funds rate remains too low to rein in rising inflation, that only two of the FOMC’s 12 members voted to support a hike, and that even a 25bp increase would be too little and too late — today's decision will drive inflation further above the Fed's 2% target.