US September PCE price index YoY 3.6% (consensus 3.6%; prior 3.4%).

RBC Capital Markets says intensive diplomatic activity ahead of the U.S. midterms has not eliminated the risk that the U.S. could resume military strikes on Iran. Analysts led by Helima Croft say there has been no pre-election de‑escalation; both sides remain entrenched and the near‑term trend favors U.S. military escalation. Key questions are whether any new action would be a final strike before withdrawal or a broader campaign to complete objectives and assist regime change; a broader U.S. campaign would increase the risk of more destructive Iranian retaliation. After the midterms, even if Congress cannot force a halt to operations, Democrats winning control of one or both chambers could use appropriations to restrict war funding.

BOC Governor Macklem said fuel costs will remain elevated for longer.