ECB says the magnitude and persistence of the energy shock could push inflation higher.

Spot silver fell 3.00% intraday to $52.32/oz.

Major banks expect the ECB to hold the deposit rate at 2.50% today while keeping December tightening on the table. Wells Fargo sees a hold and says the meeting will test whether the ECB signals that tighter financing conditions warrant patience while preserving optionality; its base case remains a December hike. Mitsubishi UFJ expects a hold now but keeps a 50bp December hike as its baseline. Danske Bank expects a hold and a final 25bp December hike to a 2.75% peak, to be maintained through 2027; it notes market interest in whether Lagarde will announce an early exit. Morgan Stanley expects a hold, expects policymakers to request more data, and says the ECB will flag close monitoring of sovereign yields without yet needing policy action. Rabobank sees no evidence energy-driven inflation is spreading to wages/prices and says the ECB can wait until December. Nordea forecasts a hold, with a baseline of +25bp in December and +25bp in March 2027 taking the deposit rate to 3.00%, and highlights markets’ focus on French bond sell-offs and tighter financing conditions. SEB’s baseline is a 25bp December hike and a possible further 25bp in March, viewing October as a mid-cycle check between September and December forecasts. Brown Brothers Harriman expects a hold but says resilient activity and inflation staying above target keep a December move to 2.75% firmly in play.