The ECB kept its key deposit rate at 2.5% on Thursday, in line with the Fed and market expectations. While rising energy costs prompted a 25bp hike in September and continue to lift inflation, mounting French sovereign stress — France's 10-year yield topped 5% for the first time in over 20 years last week — has reduced policymakers' urgency to tighten further, since higher yields push up household and corporate borrowing costs and act to cool demand. Mitsubishi UFJ economist Henry Cook said that

Major banks say widening French sovereign spreads reflect fiscal, political and liquidity risks but are not yet sufficient to trigger ECB use of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). Nomura and Deutsche Bank say only clear cross-border contagion or disorderly market moves — for example spillover to Italy or Spain — would materially raise the probability of ECB intervention. UBS warns the rise in French yields embeds liquidity risk plus fiscal, political and inflation uncertainty premia; even an ECB signal may not quickly compress yields. MUFG/Bank of Tokyo‑Mitsubishi says higher French yields have tightened financial conditions and could reduce the urgency for further ECB rate hikes. ING and Deutsche Bank judge the TPI activation threshold remains high; the ECB is more likely first to adjust policy rate guidance, pause QT or tweak reinvestment before buying French bonds outright. Danske reports bank credit standards have tightened more than expected but remain low in net terms, driven mainly by French banks, implying monetary transmission is still functioning and should not by itself block further policy tightening. Oxford Economics expects France’s fiscal strain could worsen before improving but sees it as unlikely to force ECB bond purchases even if spreads widened to about 300bps.

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