Ukraine’s National Bank forecasts GDP will contract 0.4% in 2026, versus a prior projection of 1.8% growth — the first annual decline since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The bank said intensified Russian air strikes have sharply reduced commercial activity and damaged economic capacity, restraining the recovery; it expects a 0.4% rebound in 2027 led by defence-industry and project investment. The agriculture ministry reported grain exports since the July marketing season began are down 32% YoY.