Consensus among sell-side strategists: the Bank of Japan will hold the policy rate at 1.25% in October and markets will focus on whether the BOJ judges underlying inflation to be broadly consistent with its 2% target ahead of a likely move in December. Citigroup expects a December hike and sees a possible terminal rate near 2.0%. Goldman Sachs expects a 1.25% hold, a downward revision to FY2026 core CPI and an upward revision to FY2027 core CPI (oil-driven), and sees the next hikes in Jan 2027 a

Consensus among sell-side strategists: the Bank of Japan will hold the policy rate at 1.25% in October and markets will focus on whether the BOJ judges underlying inflation to be broadly consistent with its 2% target ahead of a likely move in December. Citigroup expects a December hike and sees a possible terminal rate near 2.0%. Goldman Sachs expects a 1.25% hold, a downward revision to FY2026 core CPI and an upward revision to FY2027 core CPI (oil-driven), and sees the next hikes in Jan 2027 and July 2027. Bank of America expects a likely 8-1 vote with one hawkish dissent, expects the BOJ to say potential inflation is roughly consistent with 2% and to nudge up the 2027 core CPI median; still expects a December hike and rates to reach 1.75% in 2027. ANZ forecasts +25bp in December and another +25bp in Mar 2027 but warns uneven growth and high geopolitical uncertainty argue against aggressive tightening. Mitsubishi UFJ sees no sign of an October hike, expects the BOJ to say underlying inflation is consistent with 2% while flagging upside risks, and projects +25bp in Dec 2026 and Apr 2027. Wells Fargo expects a hold at 1.25% with market focus on the BOJ’s forecasts and confidence in inflation persistence, and still projects a December hike and subsequent rises to 1.75% in 2027. Danske Bank expects a 1.25% hold and a December hike; gradual inflationary pressure and a steady recovery support further tightening but BOJ caution keeps rates unchanged for now. Brown Brothers Harriman expects a hold to assess the impact of September’s 25bp move, noting strong underlying inflation leaves room for a more hawkish outlook.