In a Refinitiv survey of 32 economists, Deutsche Bank was the only forecaster expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates unchanged; the other 31 predict a 25bp hike to 4.85%. Deutsche Bank cites current inflation tracking RBA forecasts and a preference to await post‑US midterm clarity — notably oil — as rationale. Markets have largely priced a hike, creating asymmetric outcomes: a hold would likely weaken the AUD and lift short‑term government bonds (yields fall), while a 25bp rise wo

In a Refinitiv survey of 32 economists, Deutsche Bank was the only forecaster expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates unchanged; the other 31 predict a 25bp hike to 4.85%. Deutsche Bank cites current inflation tracking RBA forecasts and a preference to await post‑US midterm clarity — notably oil — as rationale. Markets have largely priced a hike, creating asymmetric outcomes: a hold would likely weaken the AUD and lift short‑term government bonds (yields fall), while a 25bp rise would mainly confirm expectations. Last week’s unexpected RBNZ hold underscores that central banks can defy consensus and may prompt traders to adopt a more cautious stance ahead of the RBA decision.