Preliminary U.S. midterm results favor Democrats; the 10-year Treasury yield slid from about 4.97% earlier to roughly 4.89%, its lowest since early September. U.S. stock index futures sold off and the dollar weakened to its weakest level since late September. ITC Markets FX strategist said FX moves are intensifying: Swiss franc +0.8%, euro +0.6% vs the dollar, yen +0.5% vs the dollar.

Israeli officials have shared intelligence with the US over the past two weeks claiming Iran is accelerating chemical-weapons development and considering missile or other delivery, and that the chemical threat is more urgent than Tehran’s nuclear program. US intelligence broadly assesses Iran is developing chemical capabilities but disagrees sharply on whether Iran’s leadership would use them; weapons experts say loading agents onto ballistic missiles is feasible but effective dispersal is technically challenging; Iran denies having chemical weapons. Some US officials view Israel’s warnings as pressure to push the US toward renewed large-scale military action, and Gulf states have expressed skepticism; other US officials say the threat merits serious attention. CENTCOM has drafted plans to strike Iran as early as Wednesday after the US midterm elections and expects to deploy three carrier strike groups to the Middle East, though the operational window may be short and one carrier is due back in port in early November. US intelligence assesses Iran’s threat to US interests in the region is at its highest level since the February outbreak of war, citing espionage, cyberattacks and AI-enabled voice-phishing.

歐洲央行管委拉德夫：歐洲央行不應坐等第二輪效應出現後才採取行動。