Industrial Bank chief economist Jiayang Groen said among possible US midterm outcomes, Democratic control of the House would have the biggest market impact. He argued that if Republicans lose the House and budget authority, the Trump administration would find it harder to push further tax cuts or other expansionary fiscal measures; the resulting fiscal stalemate would reduce the likelihood of additional fiscal expansion and curb risks of further fiscal deterioration, limiting upside pressure on

Industrial Bank chief economist Jiayang Groen said among possible US midterm outcomes, Democratic control of the House would have the biggest market impact. He argued that if Republicans lose the House and budget authority, the Trump administration would find it harder to push further tax cuts or other expansionary fiscal measures; the resulting fiscal stalemate would reduce the likelihood of additional fiscal expansion and curb risks of further fiscal deterioration, limiting upside pressure on long-term Treasury yields. Groen added any Democratic House majority is likely to be narrow and would face meaningful constraints from Senate filibuster rules and the presidential veto on efforts to raise spending.