Commerzbank said a decisive Democratic midterm victory would likely drive President Trump to rely more on executive orders, focusing on areas of strong unilateral authority such as foreign policy. That would make his tariff policy likely to remain in place and could prompt intensified unilateral foreign-policy moves, posing downside risk to European assets. Risk of a US budget clash remains elevated: federal funding is only approved through Dec 11, and Trump may spark a fresh appropriations figh

Commerzbank said a decisive Democratic midterm victory would likely drive President Trump to rely more on executive orders, focusing on areas of strong unilateral authority such as foreign policy. That would make his tariff policy likely to remain in place and could prompt intensified unilateral foreign-policy moves, posing downside risk to European assets. Risk of a US budget clash remains elevated: federal funding is only approved through Dec 11, and Trump may spark a fresh appropriations fight over financing related to a war with Iran; failure to agree new measures by then would risk a government shutdown similar to 2025.