Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, says a Democratic sweep of
both chambers in the US midterms could raise geopolitical risk. The result may
prompt President Trump to assert authority and seek a foreign-policy legacy,
increasing the likelihood of moves in the Middle East/Iran and on
Russia‑Ukraine. Shearing adds congressional probes are likely to constrain his
domestic agenda, increasing the incentive to pivot to foreign affairs; midterm
losses may limit domestic policy but would not substantially curb his ability to
shape US foreign policy. The risk is that Trump’s final two years become a
period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
