US crude (WTI) and Brent fell over 1% intraday, trading at $87.04/bbl and $92.87/bbl respectively.

Asian rice benchmark has risen to its highest in nearly two years amid El Nifio, heightening food inflation risk. Harvest is underway across Asia; India, the world's largest rice exporter, is experiencing drier-than-normal conditions that are weighing on output. The USDA expects global rice production this season to fall for the first time in over a decade. Thailand exporters report 5% broken white rice bids at $499/ton, the highest since Dec 2024, while Chicago rough rice futures are up more than 80% YTD. Other major grains, including corn and wheat, are trading lower. Retail pass-through remains delayed but is emerging: the Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, reported October rice prices up 7.8% YoY. The FAO also projects a decline in global rice output in 2026–27.

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