The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said on Wednesday the Bank of England would need to raise its policy rate to roughly 5% to successfully curb inflation within three years. Last week the BoE raised its rate from 3.75% to 4%—its first hike in over three years—and signalled a possible further rise while opposing market pricing of a 5% terminal rate. NIESR said investors pricing larger hikes were justified and policymakers may be moving too slowly. It forecasts inflation will p

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said on Wednesday the Bank of England would need to raise its policy rate to roughly 5% to successfully curb inflation within three years. Last week the BoE raised its rate from 3.75% to 4%—its first hike in over three years—and signalled a possible further rise while opposing market pricing of a 5% terminal rate. NIESR said investors pricing larger hikes were justified and policymakers may be moving too slowly. It forecasts inflation will peak at 4.4% YoY in February; if the BoE raises to 4.25% then holds, inflation would not return to the 2% target until 2030.