US Dollar:
1. Nomura Securities: Expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in December, compared to previous forecasts of a 25 basis point rate cut.
2. Fed October Meeting: A 25 basis point rate cut was expected; Milan supported a 50 basis point cut; Schmid hoped to hold rates steady and end balance sheet reduction on December 1st; Powell stated that a December rate cut is not a certainty, with officials deeply divided on December policy. The data vacuum caused by the government shutdown has made more people cautious, leading to a tendency to hold rates steady. Powell also mentioned that this is a risk-management rate cut, and the AI boom is different from the previous dot-com bubble.
Japanese Yen:
1. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, with two officials voting to raise rates by 25 basis points. The Bank of Japan: Real interest rates are at a significantly low level. If economic and price trends meet its forecasts, and are accompanied by improvements in the economy and prices, it will continue to raise policy rates.
2. Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: The yen-dollar exchange rate may rise to around 120-130, as the interest rate differential between Japan and the US is expected to narrow sooner or later.
3. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: The timing of another interest rate hike is still uncertain. We still cannot determine the final interest rate; there is a wide range for the final interest rate. We hope that the currency will move in a stable way that reflects the fundamentals.
Others:
1. India's Chief Economic Advisor: The Indian rupee is expected to stabilize and strengthen in the coming years.
2. Thailand's Ministry of Finance: Thailand's fourth-quarter GDP growth is expected to exceed 1% year-on-year.
3. Gulf states in the Middle East collectively announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut.
4. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%.
5. South Korea and the US reached a trade agreement, with South Korea investing $350 billion in the US; a South Korean presidential advisor stated that he does not believe the investment agreement will cause new shocks to the domestic and international foreign exchange markets.
