[Futures Hot Topic Tracking] MPOB Data Released: Malaysian Palm Oil Exports in October Far Exceeded Market Expectations. What is the Overall Impact of the Data?

The Australian dollar rose 0.50% against the US dollar on the day, currently trading at 0.6528.

US Dollar: 1. Federal Reserve's Jefferson: Interest rates have been lowered to near "neutral levels," and caution is advised. 2. Federal Reserve Governor Milan: Widespread use of stablecoins could increase the risk of hitting the zero lower bound. Extensive use of stablecoins could lower the neutral interest rate. 3. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: The government shutdown is expected to lead to a decline in fourth-quarter GDP growth. The growth outlook remains very optimistic, with economic growth potentially reaching 4% next year. 4. US Treasury Secretary Bessant: The impact of the government shutdown on the economy is becoming "worse." Substantial progress is being made on inflation, and prices are expected to fall in the coming months. 5. Progress on the US Temporary Appropriations Bill: ① The US Senate is advancing a temporary appropriations bill, but a final vote has not yet been scheduled. ② House Republican leaders have reportedly notified House Republicans to return to Congress within 36 hours, and a vote on reopening the government is expected this week. ③ Senate Majority Leader Thune: Hopes to pass a bill aimed at reopening the government early this week. British Pound Sterling: 1. Bank of England Chief Economist Peale: The emphasis will be on the continuity of Bank of England policy, rather than a relatively mild adjustment in wording. 2. Bank of England Head of Prudential Policy Implementation Saporta: The Bank of England's path to selling assets will remain fraught with difficulties. 3. UBS Global Research expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates in December 2025, up from its previous forecast of no rate cut. They anticipate rate cuts in February and April 2026, bringing the final interest rate down to 3.25%. Japanese Yen: 1. The latest policy meeting summary from the Bank of Japan indicates that the next rate hike could occur as early as December. 2. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Junko Nakagawa: The Bank of Japan expects to continue raising interest rates based on improvements in the economy and prices. Medium- to long-term inflation expectations are gradually rising to 2%. 3. Economist Takuji Aida, selected to join the Japanese government's key advisory committee, stated that the Bank of Japan should avoid raising interest rates in December and should wait until at least January next year to support the fragile economy. 4. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: Hopes the Bank of Japan will guide appropriate monetary policy to enable Japan to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. Adjusting the sales tax rate will take time, therefore the decision on whether to take this measure must consider the current wage and inflation levels. Other: 1. Argentine Economy Minister: No plans to establish a freely floating exchange rate. 2. Indonesia plans to introduce a bill to adjust the denomination of the Indonesian rupiah. 3. ECB Executive Board member Erderson: Some downside risks have been mitigated. Significant volatility and uncertainty remain. 4. ECB Vice President Guindos: We firmly believe that current interest rates are in an appropriate range. Policymaking must be approached with a highly prudent and sound approach. 5. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser: Believing that "expecting future interest rate cuts" is not a crazy idea. Rising inflation may be temporary.