US Dollar:
1. Morgan Stanley: Expects the US dollar index to fall to 94 in the first half of 2026, then rebound to 99 by the end of the year.
2. The US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index hit a new high since November 2024.
3. Federal Reserve – ① Jefferson: Downside risks to employment have increased, but reiterated the need for more cautious policy adjustments. ② Cook denies fraud allegations; lawyers call it "political persecution." ③ Fed Chair candidate Hassett: The job market is showing mixed signals; AI may suppress hiring demand. ④ Waller: Supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December. This view is unlikely to change after the employment data release.
Euro:
1. The European Commission raised its GDP growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 1.3%, and lowered its forecast for next year's growth from 1.4% to 1.2%.
2. It is reported that the EU will warn US Commerce Secretary Lutnick against expanding the scope of US steel tariffs.
3. European Central Bank – ① Governing Council member Sleipön: Risks to the Eurozone's inflation outlook are balanced. ② Governing Council member Mahrouf: Concerns about price trends are exaggerated.
Pound Sterling:
1. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann: The current environment shows upside risks to CPI.
2. Fitch: The inflation gap between the UK and the Eurozone will narrow in 2026.
3. UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering raising taxes on bank profits.
Yen Yen:
1. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo: Underlying inflation remains below target, therefore the accommodative monetary policy stance will be maintained. Maintaining accommodative monetary policy for too long could pose risks from the perspective of achieving the target stably.
2. Bank of Japan board member Kataoka Tsuyoshi: The Bank of Japan should wait until at least March or April next year to raise interest rates.
3. Concerns over expectations of a massive stimulus package in Japan caused the yen to fall below 155 overnight, Japanese bond yields rose further today, and the Nikkei index fell by more than 3%.
Others:
1. Pakistan restricts foreign exchange trading to online channels.
2. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates that the Indonesian central bank will keep its seven-day reverse repo rate at 4.75% this week.
