US Dollar:
1. Federal Reserve – ① Barr: Expressed concern about inflation remaining at 3%. Support for the labor market is needed, but inflation needs to return to 2%. ② Hamak: Further rate cuts could prolong high inflation and pose risks to financial stability. ③ Goolsby: Expressed unease about a December rate cut, unwilling to over-bet on "temporary inflation." 50-year mortgages could weaken the impact of monetary policy. ④ Cook: Would not be surprised if asset prices, currently at historical highs, collapse. ⑤ White House advisor Hassett: Data shows we should cut rates at the next Fed meeting.
⑥ Paulson: Rate cuts to date have been appropriate, but each cut sets a higher threshold for the next. Marginally, concerns about the labor market remain greater than concerns about inflation.
2. Goldman Sachs: Given the continued weakness in the labor market reflected in the unemployment rate, the possibility of a December rate cut remains.
3. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley no longer expect a Fed rate cut in December, previously predicting a 25 basis point cut. 4. Vanguard: Wall Street is overly optimistic about Fed rate cuts. The Fed may only cut rates once or twice next year.
5. UBS Global Wealth Management: Looking ahead to 2026, it forecasts US GDP growth of 1.7% and global GDP growth of 3.1%.
Euro:
1. ECB Governing Council member: "Very strong evidence" is needed to support further ECB action.
2. UBS Global Wealth Management: Prefers the euro and Australian dollar over the US dollar in 2026.
Yen:
1. Japanese government advisor: Intervention may be triggered before the yen falls to 160.
2. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: Foreign exchange intervention is an option because it was mentioned in the September Japan-US agreement.
3. Analysis: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda leans towards supporting a December rate hike, and board member Junko Koeda also made hawkish comments yesterday. New member Zakatsuka is expected to follow the mainstream opinion led by Ueda.
4. Japanese exchanges plan to revise rules to curb fraud in government bond futures trading. 5. The Japanese cabinet approved an economic stimulus package exceeding 21 trillion yen.
6. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: New bonds may be issued to finance the economic package, but the total issuance of Japanese government bonds will be lower than last year.
Other:
1. The South African Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.75%, in line with market expectations.
2. Major US banks shelved their $20 billion bailout plan for Argentina.
3. A Reuters poll: 13 out of 14 economists expect the Bank of Israel to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Monday; one expects the rate to remain at 4.5%.
