US Dollar:
1. ECB Vice President Guindos: The Fed swap line issue has not been discussed, and there is no new information. The Fed swap line is crucial for financial stability on both sides of the Atlantic.
2. US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were 216,000, the lowest since the week ending April 12, 2025.
3. The US Chicago PMI for November was 36.3, the lowest since May 2024.
4. Fed Beige Book: Most districts reported little change in economic activity; two districts indicated a slight decline in activity, while one district reported a slight increase.
5. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects US third-quarter GDP growth at 3.9%, down from a previous forecast of 4.0%.
6. JPMorgan predicts a Fed rate cut in December, overturning its forecast from a week ago.
Euro:
1. ECB Governing Council member Mueller: The ECB should not rush to cut interest rates due to a slight shortfall in inflation from its target; the upside risk to inflation from European spending remains.
2. ECB Governing Council member Vujicic: To cut rates again, you must see a downward trend in the inflation path.
Pound Sterling:
1. Traders are increasing their bets on a larger rate cut by the Bank of England, expecting a cumulative cut of 68 basis points by the end of 2026.
2. UK Chancellor Reeves has left £22 billion in room for maneuver in the UK budget.
3. ECB Vice President Guindos: Slightly more positive on growth, risks are balanced. No price expectations have decoupled.
4. UK Debt Management Agency (DMO): Plans to issue £303.7 billion in government bonds this fiscal year, up from the previous estimate of £308.1 billion.
5. Morgan Stanley: No longer bullish on the pound; the gains from the budget will fade.
Japanese Yen:
1. The Japanese government released its monthly report on Wednesday, stating that consumer confidence in the economy is recovering despite persistent inflation. The government maintained its basic economic assessment but lowered its import forecast for November.
2. Sources indicate that Japan will issue over 11.5 trillion yen in new bonds for its stimulus program; Japan expects tax revenue of 80.7 trillion yen in fiscal year 2025.
3. Japan reportedly plans to issue additional 2-year and 5-year government bonds in fiscal year 2025, raising over 7 trillion yen for its economic stimulus program.
4. Bank of Japan policy board member Asahi Noguchi stated that the Bank of Japan must adopt a prudent and gradual approach when adjusting policy.
Other:
1. The CEO of Sberbank, Russia, stated that the current fair exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar is approximately between 98 and 105.
2. The Central Bank of Mexico forecasts GDP growth of 0.3% for 2025, compared to a previous forecast of 0.6%. 3. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Hawkesby: We believe we are in a favorable position to release an official cash rate (OCR) forecast, which remains largely unchanged.
4. The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, in line with market expectations.
5. ANZ: The Reserve Bank of Australia may need to consider raising interest rates starting in the first half of 2026.
6. Goldman Sachs abandoned its forecast of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
