1. Capital Group: Tariffs and a weak job market could still drag down US economic growth in the first half of the year.
2. Citigroup: Tariffs are unlikely to have a serious impact on global growth or inflation at this stage; the risk of a recession is low.
3. BNP Paribas: Tariff increases, a more accommodative fiscal stance, and stricter immigration policies could all exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US economy.
4. BCA Research: The market has overestimated the possibility of the US Supreme Court overturning import tariffs. US tariff revenue is expected to increase in 2026.
5. ABN AMRO: The Supreme Court ruling will not be a turning point. Even if the court rules these tariffs illegal, the Trump administration still has multiple alternatives.
6. Lazard Asset Management: Tariff increases could push up US inflation in the first half of 2026, while stricter immigration enforcement would reduce the labor supply and suppress GDP growth.
7. Columbia Threadneedle: While some economists believe tariffs are a one-off price adjustment, they are more likely to create sustained inflationary pressures in 2026. 8. Capital Economics: Despite the possibility that the Supreme Court might overturn parts of Trump's tariffs, the government's increasing reliance on tariff revenue will lead authorities to seek to maintain trade barriers.
9. Barclays Private Bank: The US's reciprocal tariffs generate nearly $300 billion in revenue annually. If the Supreme Court ruling deprives the government of this pillar, fiscal policy will have to be adjusted.
10. Macquarie Bank: A lag of nine to eighteen months is expected between the announcement of tariffs and their economic impact, meaning that tariffs imposed this year are likely to have the most significant economic effect in the first half of 2026.
11. Lombard Odier: The impact of tariffs will continue to be significant in 2026, pushing up costs for US consumers. Even if the Supreme Court rules some existing US tariffs invalid, the government is expected to quickly re-implement them on other legal grounds.
