Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September, compared with previous forecasts of cuts in January and April.

The onshore yuan closed at 6.9742 against the US dollar at 16:30 on January 12, up 79 points from the previous trading day.

[Key Events and Data Preview for This Week: US CPI, China Trade Balance; Fed Officials Speak Out] 1. Monday: ① Data: Swiss December Consumer Confidence Index; Eurozone January Sentix Investor Confidence Index; China December M2 Money Supply Annual Rate (TBD); ② Events: G7 Finance Ministers Meeting; ③ Holiday: Tokyo Stock Exchange closed for Coming of Age Day. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: US 10-year Treasury auction yield and bid-to-cover ratio (until January 12); Japan's November trade balance; US December NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; US December unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate; October new home sales annualized data; ② Events: Speeches by Fed officials Williams, Bostic, and Musalaim; South Korean President Lee Jae-myung visits Japan and holds a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (until January 14); ③ Earnings Reports: JPMorgan Chase. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US weekly API crude oil inventories; US November retail sales (MoM); US November PPI Q3 current account; October business inventories (MoM); December existing home sales (annualized); weekly API and EIA crude oil inventories; China December trade balance; ② Events: EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report; speeches by 2026 FOMC voting members, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, and Fed Governor Milan; OPEC releases monthly oil market report; ③ Earnings Reports: Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo. 4. Thursday: ① Data: UK November 3-month GDP (MoM), November Manufacturing Output (MoM), November Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance, November Industrial Production (MoM); France December CPI (Final MoM); Germany 2025 Full-Year GDP Growth; Eurozone November Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance, November Industrial Production (MoM); Canada November Wholesale Sales (MoM); US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending January 10, January New York Fed Manufacturing Index, January Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, November Import Price Index (MoM); EIA Natural Gas Storage for the Week; ② Events: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book; Speeches by 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams, etc.; ECB releases economic bulletin; Bank of Korea announces interest rate decision; US and Japanese defense ministers hold summit in Washington; ③ Earnings Reports: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock. 5. Friday: ① Data: Germany's final December CPI month-on-month rate; US December industrial production month-on-month rate, January NAHB housing market index; ② Event: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on Virginia's economic outlook. 6. Saturday: ① Data: US weekly total oil rig count; ② Event: Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks; Italian Prime Minister Meloni visits South Korea from January 17th to 19th.