1. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) stated in a statement on January 21 that, supported by seasonal supply constraints and changes in fundamentals, crude palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate month-on-month in February, ranging between 4,000

2026-01-22

1. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) stated in a statement on January 21 that, supported by seasonal supply constraints and changes in fundamentals, crude palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate month-on-month in February, ranging between 4,000-4,300 ringgit per ton (US$986.32-1,060.29). 2. According to data from Zhaogang.com, as of the week ending January 21, national construction material output was 4.3843 million tons, a decrease of 110,900 tons from the previous week; social inventory was 3.6717 million tons, an increase of 110,800 tons from the previous week; and apparent demand was 4.1276 million tons, a decrease of 303,100 tons from the previous week. 3. Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressors Association (SPPOMA) shows that from January 1 to 20, 2026, Malaysian palm oil yield per hectare decreased by 16.49% compared to the same period last month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% compared to the same period last month, and output decreased by 16.06% compared to the same period last month. 4. The latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the UAE shows that as of the week ending January 19, 2026, total refined petroleum product inventories at the Port of Fujairah were 21.357 million barrels, an increase of 1.588 million barrels from the previous week. 5. According to the Silicon Industry Association, based on production plans, several leading companies are proceeding with planned shutdowns or production reductions in January, and the average monthly polysilicon production is expected to drop to around 80,000 tons in the first quarter. Although end-user demand has not yet shown a substantial recovery, the significant contraction in supply is gradually pushing the supply-demand relationship towards a weak equilibrium. The polysilicon market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see stalemate in the short term. 6. The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that in November 2025, global refined copper production was 2.2324 million tons, while consumption was 2.1323 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 100,100 tons. 7. Rio Tinto will cut production at its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% starting in October 2026. This decision will reduce annual alumina production by approximately 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs at the refinery. 8. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has submitted a shortlist of state-owned mineral assets, after multiple internal reviews, to the United States for evaluation by US investors based on bilateral mining cooperation agreements. This is the most substantial progress the US has made in seeking to influence the country's key mineral supply chain. 9. Data released by the Brazilian Sugar Industry Association (Unica) shows that sugar production in Brazil's south-central region in the second half of December decreased by 14.93% year-on-year to 56,000 tons. Sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of December was 2.171 million tons, an increase of 26.6% year-on-year.