1. Nomura: Powell is not expected to give a clear signal on future rate cuts, and may reiterate that current policy is "in good shape," adding that current interest rates are "within a neutral and reasonable range."
2. Morgan Stanley: Powell is expected to rely on recent strong economic data, stable hiring, and declining unemployment to justify a pause in rate cuts.
3. Bank of America: Powell is expected to use cautious language, and investors will closely watch his assessment of the December unemployment rate decline and his view on whether strong economic growth is consistent with higher neutral interest rates.
4. Rabobank: Powell may be asked about forward guidance such as the timing and conditions of the next rate cut. He will likely use the default phrase of "meeting-by-meeting" and "data-dependent," but may further elaborate on the criteria for rate cuts. Powell may also be asked about his court subpoena, and he may be more hawkish than in previous press conferences.
5. Allianz: Market focus will be on the strength of Powell's response to recent government challenges to the Fed's independence, which may have a greater market impact than the interest rate decision itself. 6. First US Financial: Powell is likely to emphasize that last year's cumulative rate cuts have given the Fed more room for maneuver, while closely monitoring the latest data and broader funding conditions. Further rate cuts are still possible later this year if inflation continues to moderate or economic growth slows more than expected.
