New Voting Members for 2026: More Neutral
1. Hawkish: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari:
① Interest Rate Bias: It's too early to cut rates now. A rate cut may be possible later this year. Interest rates may have reached "neutral."
② Inflation/Employment Stance: Inflation has been above the 2% target for many years and is likely to remain at this level for the next two to three years. Optimistic about the economic growth outlook.
2. Hawkish: Cleveland Fed President Hammark:
① Interest Rate Bias: Favors keeping interest rates stable until spring. More inclined to take a slightly tighter stance.
② Inflation/Employment Stance: Inflation will not return to the 2% target for another year or two after 2026; inflation risks are more concerning than the risks of a labor market downturn.
3. Hawkish: Dallas Fed President Logan:
① Interest Rate Bias: Logan stated last November that the pace of further rate cuts should be cautiously slowed. Recent public statements have been relatively few.
② Inflation/Employment Stance: Inflation remains high; the labor market is broadly balanced.
4. Neutral to Dovish: Philadelphia Fed President Paulson:
① Interest Rate Bias: No rush to cut rates now; rates are slightly above neutral; likely to favor a moderate rate cut later this year.
② Inflation/Employment Stance: Expects meaningful progress towards the 2% target by the end of the year; risks to the labor market are “slightly higher” than the risk of persistent inflation.
Withdrawal from Voting Positions: Hawks Exit
1. Hawkish: Kansas City Fed President Schmid:
① Interest Rate Bias: Voted against rate cuts in December; advocates maintaining a conservative interest rate.
② Inflation/Employment Stance: Inflationary pressures remain significant; the labor market is “basically balanced.”
2. Hawkish: Boston Fed President Collins:
① Interest Rate Bias: Voted in favor of a rate cut in December, but called it a “very close decision”; the threshold for further rate cuts is high.
② Inflation/Employment Stance: Has been concerned about excessively high inflation and the prolonged period of inflation above the Fed’s target.
3. Hawkish: St. Louis Fed President Mossallem:
① Interest Rate Bias: Voted in favor of a rate cut in December; no reason for further rate cuts in the near term.
② Inflation/Employment Stance: Inflation remains above target; the risk lies in the second-order effects.
4. Short-Term Hawkish: Chicago Fed President Goolsby:
① Interest Rate Bias: Voted against a rate cut in December, arguing for more data; interest rates may fall significantly over the next year.
② Inflation/Employment Stance: Focus should be placed on reducing inflation; economic growth is stable, and the labor market has only cooled slightly.
