I. Gold Bulls Remain in Long-Term Bull Market
International Institutions
1. Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist: A weak dollar is Trump's political lifeline, and the trend of currency depreciation will continue to support physical assets. Unless a structural collapse occurs, the long-term bull market for gold is unlikely to change.
2. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) Commodity Strategist: This round of decline is a correction and buying opportunity, not a change in fundamentals. We maintain our forecast that gold prices will reach $6,000 in the fourth quarter.
3. Saxo Bank: The underlying logic for holding gold remains unshaken. Funds will continue to buy on dips. We expect $6,000 to remain a potential medium- to long-term upside target, while silver may gradually fall behind.
4. Deutsche Bank Analyst: The so-called thematic drivers for gold remain positive. The recent decline in gold does not indicate a lasting trend reversal, and gold prices are still expected to rise to the target level of $6,000 per ounce.
5. JPMorgan Private Bank Asia Macro Strategy Head: This gold price correction is a healthy technical pullback. We've raised our year-end 2026 gold price target to $6,150 per troy ounce, with a forecast range of $6,000 to $6,300.
6. Standard Chartered Bank Chief Investment Officer: Due to uncertainty surrounding US government spending, $4,650 presents an opportunity to "buy" gold. Regardless of who the Fed Chairman is, Trump will continue as president, and his fiscal policies will remain expansionary.
Domestic Institutions:
1. CITIC Securities: In 2026, precious metals will benefit from the combined strength of their monetary attributes and safe-haven demand, with gold potentially reaching $6,000. Extreme shortages and high trading activity in the spot market may bring strong price elasticity to silver, with silver prices potentially rising to $120.
2. Everbright Securities International Strategist: The medium-to-long-term investment logic for gold remains intact. Short-term price volatility is expected to continue, and investors should not rush to buy the dip. The key support level for this pullback is roughly in the $4300-$4500/ounce range.
3. CICC: Gold exceeding $5500/ounce is a significant watershed, signifying that the total value of existing gold reserves ($38.2 trillion) is now equivalent to the total stock of US Treasury bonds ($38.5 trillion), the first time since the 1980s. This implies that the global edifice anchored to the US dollar and based on US Treasury bonds is showing signs of weakening.
II. "Cycle Top" Focuses More on Correction Risk
1. Citi: Gold investment allocation is supported by a series of intertwined geopolitical and economic risks, but about half of these risks may subside later this year.
2. FxPro Senior Market Analyst: Recent price action suggests that this round of gold price increases has peaked. Looking at a longer timeframe (up to one year), a deeper correction to the $3600-$4000 range is possible.
3. World Gold Council Asia-Europe Market Strategist: Gold's appeal as a strategic hedging tool rather than a speculative trade appears likely to persist; central bank purchases continue to provide strong support for gold prices. However, gold lacks a traditional valuation framework, and caution is warranted as long-term returns may be far lower than its recent exceptional performance.
