Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement
1. Interest Rate Level: The benchmark interest rate was maintained at 3.75%, in line with market expectations.
2. Voting Ratio: The interest rate was maintained by a 5-4 vote, with Dingela, Taylor, Ramsden, and Braden supporting a 25 basis point rate cut. The market had widely predicted a more decisive 7-2 vote.
3. Forward Guidance: The statement indicated that interest rates may be lowered further. Governor Bailey stated that there is still room for further rate cuts this year.
4. Economic Forecasts: Economic growth forecasts for this year and next were lowered, while the 2028 growth forecast was raised. The 2026 inflation forecast was lowered from 2.8% to 2.1%. The risks to persistent inflation have become "less apparent," and inflation is expected to fall to "close" to the target level from April.
5. Market Impact: The pound fell to a two-week low against the dollar (GBP/USD). Traders increased their bets on further easing by the Bank of England, favoring a rate cut in March. Governor Bailey's Press Conference
1. Interest Rate Path: There should be room for further policy easing. There remains considerable uncertainty as to where interest rates will ultimately stabilize. Even if (inflation) persists, a rate hike is not being considered.
2. Economic Activity: Wage growth is expected to reach around 3.2% by year-end. Institutions expect growth to remain subdued throughout the year.
3. Inflation Expectations: Inflation is progressing as planned, ahead of schedule. Upside risks have diminished. Inflation is expected to decline in the next report.
