US Dollar:
1. US retail sales rose 0% month-on-month in December, below the median forecast of 0.4% and the previous month's 0.60%.
2. ADP report: In the four weeks ending January 24, US private sector employment increased by an average of 6,500 per week.
3. White House trade advisor Navarro: We need to revise our expectations for monthly employment data. We do not expect weak employment data.
4. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: The dollar's exchange rate has been artificially inflated for years and is more natural at its current level. He expects fourth-quarter GDP growth to exceed 5%.
5. US Treasury Secretary Bessant: Productivity booms are often accompanied by employment booms. The Fed under Warsh will also remain vigilant to ensure that policy timing is not mismatched.
Pound Sterling:
1. British Prime Minister Starmer: As long as I breathe, I will fight to the end. I will lead the Labour Party in the next general election.
2. Andy Burnham, a potential rival to Prime Minister Starmer, clarified his comments last year about the UK being "dependent on the bond market," saying his intention was misunderstood.
Japanese Yen:
1. According to Kyodo News: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering retaining all cabinet ministers.
2. Bank of America Global Research: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in April, down from its previous forecast of June; a further 25 basis point hike is expected in September, followed by 25 basis point hikes in January and July 2027.
Other:
1. South Korean Finance Minister: Efforts will be made to stabilize the foreign exchange market.
2. Thai Ministry of Finance: The central bank has been instructed to monitor speculative activities in the Thai baht.
3. Central Bank: Will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Guide short-term money market interest rates to better align with the central bank's policy rate.
4. ECB Vice President Guindos: The latest appreciation of the euro is not significant, and the trading range is consistent with the ECB's forecast. Attention needs to be paid to the trade-weighted nominal exchange rate.
5. The South Korean national think tank KDI has raised its GDP and inflation forecasts for South Korea. It expects South Korea's GDP growth rate to be 1.9% in 2026, up from the previous 1.8%, and the inflation rate to be 2.1% on average in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 2.0%.
