US Dollar: 1. US initial jobless claims fell by the largest amount since November, indicating a stabilizing labor market. 2. The US trade deficit widened in December, reaching $901.5 billion for the year, still one of the largest deficits since rec

2026-02-20

US Dollar: 1. US initial jobless claims fell by the largest amount since November, indicating a stabilizing labor market. 2. The US trade deficit widened in December, reaching $901.5 billion for the year, still one of the largest deficits since records began in 1960. 3. Fed's Kashkari: Monetary policy is close to neutral. The labor market remains quite resilient, although it has slowed, it is still "good or even quite good." 4. US Democratic Senator Warren questioned personnel changes within the Fed's banking supervision department. 5. Fed's Daly: Policy is "in good shape," and the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy is being assessed. 6. S&P: The current probability of a US recession within the next 12 months is 20%-25%, down from 30% in September. Euro: 1. ECB Vice President Guindos: ECB President Lagarde is fully focused on her work. 2. ECB's Demarco: Even if the euro/dollar rises to 1.20-1.25, it's not the end of the world. 3. ECB President Christine Lagarde told colleagues she remains focused on her job. 4. According to the Wall Street Journal: ECB President Lagarde stated that her baseline expectation is to complete her term at the ECB. The World Economic Forum is "one of many options" after the ECB. Pound Sterling: 1. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann: Food inflation is a key factor in my decision-making. 2. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann: Inflation is expected to reach 2% in the next three to four months. Commodity inflation has fallen more than expected. 3. Bank of England Governor Mann stated that he is prepared to keep interest rates unchanged until inflation expectations decline. Yen Yen: 1. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: Will not implement reckless fiscal policies that undermine market confidence. Will steadily reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio and restore fiscal sustainability. Others: 1. Canada's trade deficit widened to a record high of C$31.3 billion last year, with rising gold prices masking the true impact of tariffs. 2. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Conway: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not act hastily on interest rate hikes.