[CITIC Securities: Post-Holiday Spring Rally Expected to Continue; Price Increases Remain a Core Allocation Theme in Q1] A research report from CITIC Securities suggests that February this year was a significant turning point. The leap in AI coding capabilities has officially ushered in an exponential expansion phase for the global effective code volume. However, the expansion rate of the total value of social physical production and total income lags far behind the expansion rate of AI-generated code under current physical AI technology conditions. Globally, it is highly likely that the market will first experience a process of code volume expansion, overcapacity, intensified competition, and reduced returns on capital investment. Based on two dimensions—physical dependence and regulatory/emotional barriers—CITIC Securities categorizes industries into four types: those affected (low physical dependence, low regulatory/emotional barriers), those reshaped (low dependence, high barriers), those in strongholds (high dependence, high barriers), and those benefiting (high physical dependence, low regulatory/emotional barriers). In the near future, the gap in returns between beneficiaries of physical scarcity and those affected by code expansion is likely to widen, and this divergence trend will continue. This is a new factor that must be considered when assessing market conditions and sector allocation. From a short-term market perspective, the A-share market is dominated by manufacturing and finance. Under the impact of this round of AI, it is less affected than US and Hong Kong stocks. The pattern of capital inflow and bullish sentiment has not changed. The spring rally after the holiday is expected to continue, and price increases remain one of the core allocation themes in the first quarter.
