Energy:
1. Hungarian Foreign Minister: We believe the "Friendship" pipeline is technically operational, and we hope Ukraine will immediately resume crude oil shipments to Hungary.
2. India's crude oil imports in January fell 0.6% year-on-year to 21.1 million tons; diesel exports fell 14.6% year-on-year to 2.4 million tons; gasoline exports rose 3.2% year-on-year to 1.4 million tons.
3. Morgan Stanley: Raised its near-term Brent crude oil price forecast, as geopolitical risk premiums may persist for a long time, but expects oil prices to fall back to $60 per barrel later this year.
4. According to the Wall Street Journal: Chevron has entered into exclusive negotiations with Iraq regarding a giant oil field project.
5. Market news: Australia and New Zealand will lower the price ceiling for Russian crude oil.
Precious Metals and Mining:
1. Trafigura: Trafigura signed an $1.1 billion loan agreement to support long-term supplies of key metals to German industry.
2. Central bank data shows that Venezuela's gold reserves will decline by 11% to 47 tons by 2025.
3. JPMorgan Chase: Predicts a 130,000-ton copper supply shortage in 2026. Increased scrap copper supply and the return of supply following several major disruptions in 2025 are expected to put the copper market back in a moderate surplus state in 2027. Copper prices are projected at $13,500 per ton in Q2 2026 and $13,000 per ton in Q3 2026.
4. JPMorgan Chase: Aluminum prices are projected to average $3,200 per ton in Q2 2026 and remain largely stable in the second half of 2026. A 230,000-ton aluminum supply deficit is estimated for 2026.
5. Goldman Sachs: Overall, central bank gold purchases and increased gold exposure by private investors in anticipation of Fed rate cuts will drive gold prices slowly up to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026.
Tariffs:
1. Trump's 10% global tariffs take effect.
2. US media: The Trump administration is considering imposing new national security tariffs on six industries, including batteries, pig iron, and iron fittings.
