Energy
1. International crude oil prices surged at the opening on Monday due to the situation in the Middle East.
2. Thai media: Thailand has implemented an oil export ban and activated its energy emergency monitoring center.
3. Trade sources: Increased supply concerns in the Middle East have widened the near-month price spread for Dubai crude oil by nearly $1.
4. Goldman Sachs: If traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for six weeks, crude oil prices face an "$18 risk premium."
5. Sources say that Russia's oil exports from western ports in March are expected to decrease by 10% compared to February, to 1.8 million barrels per day.
6. The US Department of Justice: The US is seeking to seize an oil tanker and 1.8 million barrels of crude oil, which have provided support to Iran and Venezuela.
7. Kuwait National Oil Corporation stated that debris fell at the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery on Monday, injuring two workers.
8. Goldman Sachs stated that if traffic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues for a month, Asian spot liquefied natural gas prices could surge by 130%. 9. A Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry official stated that no decision has been made regarding the release of oil reserves, and no international requests for coordinated release have been received to date.
10. Sources indicate that Platts Energy Information has suspended its price assessments for refined petroleum products loaded at Middle Eastern ports that need to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
11. According to a Reuters survey, the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 is projected to be $63.85 per barrel, up from a January forecast of $62.02 per barrel; the average WTI crude oil price is projected to be $60.38 per barrel, up from a January forecast of $58.72 per barrel.
12. Kpler AIS tracking data shows increasingly severe tanker queues in the Gulf of Mexico and east of the Strait of Hormuz. On March 1st, the number of tankers transiting eastward through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted, with only three vessels fully loaded with crude oil and refined petroleum products observed.
Middle East Situation:
1. A close confidant of former Iranian President Ahmadinejad stated that he is safe.
2. Trump: I don't think Arab countries need to join the United States in attacking Iran.
3. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larijani refuted reports of resuming US-Iran negotiations.
4. US media: Trump stated that sanctions against Iran might be lifted if the next Iranian leader proves pragmatic.
Other:
1. Risk aversion intensifies, gold and silver opened higher across the board on Monday.
2. Maersk diverted some ships to its southern African route.
3. According to media reports, India may face gold and diamond shortages following the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran.
4. Citigroup: Only a long-term, effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be a sufficient reason to significantly increase the aluminum risk premium. Maintaining a short-term bullish view on aluminum, and keeping the 3-month price target for aluminum at $3400/ton.
