German Chancellor Merz: The change of regime is good news for Iran and the Iranian people.

Energy 1. Market news: Some Asian refineries are reportedly considering production cuts of 20% to 30%. 2. Industry sources: Qatar's production halt prompts India to reduce natural gas supplies to its industrial sector. 3. According to Reuters: An oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday to load oil in the UAE. 4. According to CNN: Only two oil tankers and a chemical tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. 5. Analysis firms: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused Saudi oil storage to rapidly approach its limit. 6. JPMorgan Chase: Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude oil supplies could decrease by 3.3 million barrels per day within days. 7. Qatar's production halt and the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Asian LNG prices to a three-year high. 8. Trump announced insurance for oil shipments at sea, with the Navy providing protection if necessary. 9. Sources: Saudi Aramco informed crude oil buyers that cargoes must be loaded at Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast. 10. ANZ Bank raised its Q1 forecast, predicting Brent crude to reach $90/barrel and LNG to reach $17/MMBtu. 11. Standard Chartered Bank raised its Q1 2026 Brent crude price forecast to $74/barrel (previously $62/barrel), Q2 forecast to $67/barrel (previously $63/barrel), and its full-year 2026 average price forecast to $70/barrel (previously $63.50/barrel). 12. Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 2026 average Brent crude price forecast by $10 to $76/barrel and its WTI crude average price forecast by $9 to $71/barrel. 13. Iraqi officials stated that if oil tankers cannot navigate freely and reach loading ports, Iraq will be forced to cut production by more than 3 million barrels per day within days. Precious Metals and Mining 1. Middle East conflict disrupts shipping in Dubai, impacting global gold and silver circulation. 2. Citigroup: If the conflict continues, copper prices may fall below $12,000 in the short term. 3. Indonesian Nickel Mining Association: The government has allocated approximately 260 million metric tons of nickel ore production quotas for 2026. Other 1. Iran has temporarily banned all food and agricultural exports. 2. Indian rice destined for the Middle East is stuck in ports due to the conflict in Iran. 3. Maersk: Has suspended all new bookings between the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka). 4. Polish state-owned fertilizer producers have temporarily stopped accepting new orders due to continued tensions in the Middle East and soaring natural gas prices, a key input.

Ecuador's Ministry of Defense: The specific details of the full-scale offensive operation are state secrets.