Internationally:
1. Goldman Sachs: Brent crude oil could rise to $100 if supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz last for five weeks.
2. JPMorgan Chase: Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude oil supplies could decrease by 3.3 million barrels per day within days.
3. Fitch: Asia-Pacific energy exporters could benefit if the Middle East conflict continues.
4. Morgan Stanley: South Korea imports 70% of its oil from the Middle East; a 10% increase in oil prices is expected to push inflation up by 0.6%.
5. Standard Chartered raised its Q1 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $74 per barrel.
6. eToro: Interest rate expectation repricing may suppress gold prices, but the structural logic for gold remains unchanged.
7. Citigroup: Copper prices could fall below $12,000 in the short term if the conflict continues.
8. Commerzbank: Oil and gas prices dominate bond market volatility; the market continues to focus on the Middle East conflict.
9. ING: The Middle East conflict increases the upside risk for aluminum prices. 10. Natixis: Oil prices are expected to trade around $80 in the short term, with limited supply disruptions in the Middle East.
11. Oxford Economics: Ample market supply buffers the impact of conflict, making a full-blown oil crisis unlikely.
12. Goldman Sachs warns emerging Asian markets that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to rising inflation.
13. Deutsche Bank: A March rate cut by the Bank of England is uncertain, with the final rate potentially rising.
Domestic:
1. CICC: The turning point for the Beijing and Shanghai housing markets is approaching.
2. CITIC Securities: Escalating tensions in the Middle East could catalyze an unexpected rise in aluminum prices.
3. CITIC Securities: The inclusion of South Korean government bonds in the WGBI index is expected to bring in $50-60 billion in passive funds.
4. Galaxy Securities: The current valuation of the securities sector is at a historical low, offering both defensive and rebound potential.
5. Huatai Securities: The unexpected drop in pork prices after the holiday reinforces the logic of capacity reduction.
6. CITIC Securities: AIDC power supply system upgrades and iterations create new opportunities, and the trend of overseas power grid upgrades is clear.
