US Dollar
1. Reuters poll: 21 of 45 FX strategists expect dollar positions to remain stable or increase by the end of March, while 19 expect them to decrease.
2. Federal Reserve
—① Milan: It is appropriate to continue cutting rates at the March meeting; the outlook has not changed due to the outbreak of the Iranian conflict. A one percentage point rate cut this year is appropriate. ② Hamak: Rates are likely to remain unchanged for a considerable period. ④ Beige Book: Overall, economic expectations are optimistic, with most regions expecting modest to moderate growth in the coming months. ⑤ The White House said it has submitted Warsh's nomination to the Senate as Fed Chair, believed to replace Milan's seat on the board.
Euro
1. ECB Governing Council member Rehn: Calm must be maintained when assessing the impact of the Iranian situation.
2. The money market expects the probability of an ECB rate hike in December to fall to 20%, down from about 60% earlier.
3. Reuters poll: Euro/USD is expected to trade at 1.20 in six months and 1.21 in one year (unchanged from the February survey). Other news:
1. Reports indicate the Bank of Japan has not ruled out a rate hike in April.
2. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung: The need to address currency and stock market volatility.
3. Bank of Thailand Governor: Concerned about inflation, but believes it can be effectively managed.
4. Swiss National Bank Vice President: Reiterates earlier statements this week; given recent developments, our willingness to intervene is stronger.
5. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, emerging market currency volatility exceeded that of developed markets this week.
