US Dollar
1. The US launches Section 301 investigations against 16 trading partners, including the EU.
2. US February CPI data showed no surprises, with the core CPI annual rate falling to a five-year low.
3. US federal funds futures predict the Fed will cut interest rates by only 26 basis points this year.
4. White House spokesperson: The Consumer Price Index report shows a strong US economy.
5. According to the Associated Press: Sources say the Pentagon informed Congress that the war against Iran cost the US $11.3 billion in the first week.
6. The Congressional Budget Office predicts the federal budget deficit will be $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026, increasing to $3.1 trillion by 2036.
7. Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December 2026, compared to previous forecasts of June and September cuts.
8. Fitch: A cooling labor market and slowing wage growth are likely to persuade the Fed to cut rates twice in 2026. Euro
1. EU warns: Middle East conflict could cause EU inflation to exceed 3%.
2. ECB Vice President Guindos: Markets will amplify the impact. Monetary policy needs to remain calm.
3. ECB Governing Council member Villeroy: No interest rate hike expected at next week's ECB meeting.
4. ECB Executive Board member Schnabel: March forecasts will partially reflect the Iranian shock. The persistence of the energy price shock must be monitored, and the risk of upward inflation must be guarded against.
5. Eurozone money markets have fully priced in the expectation of an ECB rate hike before July, with an approximately 85% probability of another rate hike by December.
Pound Sterling
1. Overnight index swaps show that the probability of a Bank of England rate cut this year has fallen from 50% on Tuesday to about 20%.
2. UK Chancellor Reeves: It is unwise to speculate on the impact of the Iranian conflict on UK economic growth, inflation, or interest rates.
3. Nomura Securities: Expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in April and July, compared to previous forecasts of cuts in March and June.
Korean Won
1. South Korean National Assembly passes US investment bill.
2. South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs: South Korean Finance Minister and Japanese Finance Minister to hold bilateral meeting on Saturday.
3. Bank of Korea Policy Board Member Hwang Kun-il: Monetary policy should maintain a cautious and neutral stance. Fluctuations in exchange rates and bond yields are inconsistent with economic fundamentals.
Other
1. Traders say the Reserve Bank of India is likely to sell dollars to support the rupee.
2. Polish Central Bank Governor Grapinski: Lower gold prices and a weaker zloty present profit opportunities.
3. Malaysian Prime Minister: A special cabinet meeting will be held on Friday to review the country's fiscal situation.
4. Central Bank of Bahrain: All financial institutions are on the highest level of physical and cybersecurity alert.
5. Central Bank of Russia: Affected by falling oil prices, Russian exporters' foreign exchange sales fell by 31% month-on-month in February.
6. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: We need to be wary that the impact of the foreign exchange market on prices is greater than in the past, which may affect inflation expectations.
