1. Deutsche Bank: Policymakers are expected to emphasize the significantly increased geopolitical uncertainty.
2. Morgan Stanley: The Federal Reserve is not expected to respond to the oil price shock by raising interest rates or hinting at the risk of such a hike.
3. RBC Capital Markets: The recent energy price shock is not enough to put a rate hike on the agenda, but may prompt the Fed to remain on the sidelines.
4. Rabobank: If the war situation worsens, the US economy will face the dual pressures of soaring inflation and a significant slowdown in growth in 2026.
5. Bank of America: With slowing employment and exhausted fiscal stimulus, rising oil prices will weaken consumer spending, creating conditions for the Fed to ease monetary policy.
6. ANZ: Uncertainty arising from the Middle East geopolitical situation is not expected to substantially change the Fed's underlying fundamental assessment of declining inflation and cooling employment.
7. Commerzbank: As long as inflation expectations remain stable and the labor market continues to face downward pressure, the Fed is likely to temporarily ignore the temporary rise in oil prices.
