1. Morgan Stanley: Powell may choose to ignore energy-driven inflation, posing a downside risk to the dollar.
2. Rabobank: The dollar may still have room to strengthen further as the Middle East conflict shows no signs of easing.
3. ANZ: The dollar has rebounded due to its safe-haven status, but this strength may be temporary as the currency remains overvalued.
4. TS Lombard: Believes the dollar is unlikely to experience sustained appreciation at present and will face further downward pressure in the next 3 to 6 months.
5. TD Securities: Maintains its forecast of a weaker dollar in 2026, citing waning US economic growth advantages, diminished safe-haven appeal, and a further intensification of "hedge against the US" trades.
6. HSBC: In its baseline scenario, if geopolitical premiums subside and the market returns to macroeconomic fundamentals, the dollar will resume its previous weakening trend. However, if energy inflation forces the Fed to return to a rate hike path, the dollar will experience an unexpected surge.
7. DBS Bank: Unless the Middle East conflict triggers an extremely severe long-term inflationary spiral and forces the market to completely erase expectations of two rate cuts in 2026, the US dollar will lack the unilateral upward momentum driven by the aggressive rate hike wave of 2022.
