US Dollar:
1. The Federal Reserve's March meeting maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, while Milan believed a 25 basis point cut was warranted. The impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remains uncertain. The dot plot maintains its expectation of one rate cut each in this year and next, but the distribution has become more hawkish. Powell believes interest rates are at the high end of the neutral range, or slightly tight, in a favorable position; there is currently no stagflation, and the energy supply disruption is a one-off event. Powell gave a tough response regarding his continued tenure: he will not leave until the investigation is over, and even if it is over, he may not leave; if a successor is not confirmed, he will continue to serve as interim chairman.
2. Morgan Stanley postponed its expectations for Fed rate cuts to September and December, previously expecting June and September.
Japanese Yen:
1. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting, mentioning concerns about the impact of rising oil prices.
2. The Bank of Japan Governor stated that the Middle East situation, oil prices, and the foreign exchange market are the three major risk factors; the focus in April will be on the price outlook.
3. The Japan-US summit will issue a joint statement agreeing to a second round of investment exceeding 11 trillion yen.
4. Japanese trade statistics show that exports to the US fell year-on-year for the third consecutive month in February.
Other:
1. Markets are increasing bets on a European Central Bank rate hike, expecting a 59 basis point increase by the end of the year.
2. UK interest rate futures indicate that the Bank of England is expected to tighten rates by 32 basis points before December, compared to a 21 basis point price the previous day.
3. South Korean financial regulators: will expand the 100 trillion won market stabilization program if necessary.
4. The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged, stating it will "ignore" the impact of a short-term surge in oil prices.
5. The Philippine central bank emphasized that its intervention in the foreign exchange market aims to smooth excessive volatility and maintain orderly market operation.
6. Australian Treasurer: A war with Iran could increase overall inflation by another 0.25%, doubling the negative impact on GDP.
7. Brazil's central bank cut interest rates from 15% to 14.75%, in line with market expectations of a 50 basis point cut to 14.5%.
8. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand plans to adjust its open market operations. It will begin offering weekly full-amount allocation operations to inject liquidity into the market.
