GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER: COMPANIES ARE BEING DRIVEN OUT OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO HIGH ENERGY PRICES, MINISTRY CANNOT REMAIN INDIFFERENT

1. Reuters poll: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with 67 out of 72 economists surveyed predicting it will maintain rates at 2% until the end of 2026. 2. BNP Paribas: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but if the conflict escalates and the energy supply chain is severely damaged, the central bank is highly likely to be forced to restart the rate hike process. 3. Vanguard: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and is expected to remain on hold until the end of the year, but has eliminated its previous downward bias on the policy rate outlook. 4. ABN AMRO: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but with a negative outlook, Eurozone inflation may be significantly higher than the baseline, and the ECB may raise rates starting in April. 5. Citigroup: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with uncertainty providing a reason for remaining on hold, but the possibility of several precautionary rate hikes cannot be ruled out. 6. Goldman Sachs: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but in the event of an extremely unfavorable energy situation, the bank may raise rates by 25 basis points three times consecutively starting in June, or even in April. 7. Ebury Group: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The war makes a rate hike more likely than a rate cut in the next move. Lagarde is likely to say that "the ECB will not allow a dangerous surge in inflation." 8. TS Lombard: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Although pricing in a rate hike this year was too aggressive, the threshold for a rate hike next year has actually lowered, considering that higher natural gas prices are now the baseline scenario. 9. Danske Bank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while emphasizing vigilance against upside risks to inflation. Rising energy prices complicate the policy outlook, and policymakers are more inclined to maintain policy flexibility. 10. Berenberg Bank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Even if the war continues for a longer period, and the energy price shock causes economic stagnation, a rate hike by the ECB is not expected until the second half of 2027. 11. Nordeabank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The March economic forecast may not have fully incorporated the impact of the war, and is expected to show slightly better economic growth and slightly lower inflation. 12. KfW: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, as current energy price increases have not lasted long enough to force the central bank to raise rates; the word "vigilance" may become a word frequently used by Lagarde.

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